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Chairman in Name Only Brian S. Wesbury – Chief Economist Robert Stein, CFA – Deputy Chief Economist Date: May 4, 2026 Kevin Warsh wants to make some big shifts in monetary policy at the Fed. Unfortunately, unless and until soon-to-be...

Stocks were mixed last week as investors gauged potential outcomes of the Middle East conflict amid an ongoing ceasefire.The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 0.55 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index advanced 1.50 percent. By...

Brian S. Wesbury – Chief EconomistRobert Stein, CFA – Deputy Chief EconomistDate: April 27, 2026This report was prepared by First Trust Advisors L. P., and reflects the current opinion of the authors. It is based upon sources and data...

Stocks rallied last week as investor enthusiasm built for an end to the war in the Middle East and hopes of a resumption of normal global trade. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 4.54 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index picked...

Brian S. Wesbury – Chief EconomistRobert Stein, CFA – Deputy Chief EconomistDate: April 21, 2026This report was prepared by First Trust Advisors L. P., and reflects the current opinion of the authors. It is based upon sources and data...

Hope won out over fear last week as investors set their sights on a Middle East ceasefire holding and optimistic prospects for the Strait of Hormuz reopening.The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 3.56 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite...

Rate Cuts on BackburnerBrian S. Wesbury – Chief EconomistRobert Stein, CFA – Deputy Chief EconomistDate: April 13, 2026If you expect Kevin Warsh to quickly take the helm at the Fed and start cutting rates, you need to adjust your...

Stocks rose over the short trading week on fresh hopes for a quick end to the Middle East conflict, while March job growth was unexpectedly strong.The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index picked up 3.36 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index...

Election Year Forecast: A Divided CongressBrian S. Wesbury – Chief EconomistRobert Stein, CFA – Deputy Chief EconomistDate: April 6, 2026In 2024, Republicans swept the White House, Senate, and House, which let them make the Trump tax...

Stocks ended a challenging week lower as investors' attention shifted from updates on ceasefire talks to concerns about the economic impact of a protracted conflict.The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index lost 2.12 percent, while the Nasdaq...

Stocks See Troubles BrewingRobert Stein, CFA – Deputy Chief EconomistDate: March 30, 2026The US economy grew a pedestrian 2.0% last year and the Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now is currently projecting real GDP growth at a 2.0% annual rate in the...

Another volatile week unfolded as rapid developments in the Middle East and public comments from leaders on the conflict see-sawed markets, leaving investors struggling to keep up with updates.The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index lost 1.89...

Brian S. Wesbury – Chief EconomistRobert Stein, CFA – Deputy Chief EconomistDate: March 23, 2026This report was prepared by First Trust Advisors L. P., and reflects the current opinion of the authors. It is based upon sources and data...

Stocks logged a third-straight down week as investors digested the latest news out of the Middle East, navigated more volatility, and mulled the latest economic data. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index declined 1.60 percent, while the...

Brian S. Wesbury – Chief EconomistRobert Stein, CFA – Deputy Chief EconomistDate: March 16, 2026This report was prepared by First Trust Advisors L. P., and reflects the current opinion of the authors. It is based upon sources and data...

Stocks fell last week as investors assessed the implications of a fresh Middle East conflict while digesting mixed reports on the jobs market.The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 2.02 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index slid 1.24...

Brian S. Wesbury – Chief EconomistRobert Stein, CFA – Deputy Chief EconomistDate: March 9, 2026This report was prepared by First Trust Advisors L. P., and reflects the current opinion of the authors. It is based upon sources and data...

Stocks fell last week amid concerns about artificial intelligence (AI) and a warmer-than-expected reading of wholesale inflation. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 0.44 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index declined 0.95 percent...

The Great ResetBrian S. Wesbury – Chief EconomistRobert Stein, CFA – Deputy Chief EconomistDate: March 2, 2026As we all know, the US and Israeli militaries attacked Iran. The old Ayatollah and his successor are dead, along with much of...

Stocks ended a choppy four-session run in the green, with tech-led momentum earlier in the week prevailing over news of a slowing economy, sticky inflation, and geopolitical tensions.The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index advanced 1.07...

Higher Tariffs Not DeadBrian S. Wesbury – Chief EconomistRobert Stein, CFA – Deputy Chief EconomistDate: February 23, 2026The Trump Tariffs are dead, long live the Trump Tariffs!As we expected, the Supreme Court struck down most of the...

Stocks fell last week as investors reacted to mixed economic data and concerns over signs of broadening AI disruption of business models.The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 1.39 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index declined 2.10...

Good GDP, Not So Good JobsBrian S. Wesbury – Chief EconomistRobert Stein, CFA – Deputy Chief EconomistDate: February 17, 2026If you’re grading the economy based on real GDP, it looks pretty good; if grading based on jobs, not so much...

Stocks were mixed last week, with broad gains on Monday and Friday bookending midweek selling pressure as investors digested earnings results from more than 100 S&P 500 companies.The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index ended the week roughly...

Brian S. Wesbury – Chief EconomistRobert Stein, CFA – Deputy Chief EconomistDate: February 9, 2026This report was prepared by First Trust Advisors L. P., and reflects the current opinion of the authors. It is based upon sources and...

Stocks were mixed last week as investors navigated Q4 corporate results, a widely expected Fed decision, and a handful of economic reports.The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 0.34 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index edged down 0...

Will Kevin Warsh Fix the Fed?Brian S. Wesbury – Chief EconomistRobert Stein, CFA – Deputy Chief EconomistDate: February 2, 2026President Trump finally made his pick for Fed Chair and it is Kevin Warsh. A Wall Street Journal editorial...

Markets ended a short but eventful week slightly lower amid geopolitical tensions and fresh tariff threats. However, constructive economic news appeared to buoy spirits as the week progressed.The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 0.35...

No Rate Cut WednesdayBrian S. Wesbury – Chief EconomistRobert Stein, CFA – Deputy Chief EconomistDate: January 26, 2026The Fed meets on Wednesday to discuss the direction of monetary policy. With the futures market pricing the odds of...

Stocks ended last week with modest losses after a volatile five days of market-moving economic data, geopolitics, and Fed drama.The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slid 0.38 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index skidded 0.66 percent....

Brian S. Wesbury – Chief EconomistRobert Stein, CFA – Deputy Chief EconomistDate: January 20, 2026This report was prepared by First Trust Advisors L. P., and reflects the current opinion of the authors. It is based upon sources and...

Stocks posted solid gains in an action-packed week of market-moving economic data, geopolitical news, and bullish new year sentiment.The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gained 1.57 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index added 1.88...

Peering Through the Data FogBrian S. Wesbury – Chief EconomistRobert Stein, CFA – Deputy Chief Economisthave never seen economic data as murky as they are today. The jobs data are very soft, and yet the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model...

Stocks trended lower last week amid signs of year-end profit-taking and some sour investor sentiment over the Fed meeting minutes.The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 1.03 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index lost 1.52 percent....

2026 Forecast: Still WaryBrian S. Wesbury – Chief EconomistRobert Stein, CFA – Deputy Chief EconomistDate: January 5, 2026This report was prepared by First Trust Advisors L. P., and reflects the current opinion of the authors. It is...

Stocks delivered for investors last week as positive economic data and bullish holiday cheer powered the start of a “Santa Claus rally” past consumer bah humbug sentiment.The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 1.40 percent, while the...

Brian S. Wesbury – Chief EconomistRobert Stein, CFA – Deputy Chief EconomistDate: December 29, 2025This report was prepared by First Trust Advisors L. P., and reflects the current opinion of the authors. It is based upon sources and...

Stocks posted a slight gain last week as mixed jobs data triggered some selling pressure before a cooling inflation report helped stocks recover.The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index inched ahead 0.10 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite...

The Bible story of the virgin birth is at the center of much of the holiday cheer this time of year. The book of Luke tells us that Mary and Joseph traveled to Bethlehem because Caesar Augustus decreed a census should be taken. Mary...

Stocks ended last week mixed. A widely anticipated Federal Reserve decision on interest rates and a rotation into non-tech areas helped push the Dow Industrials higher, while the broader market and technology stocks lagged behind. The...

Date: December 15, 2025 We’re finally breaking out of the clouds! Economists have mostly been flying blind because of the government shutdown, but this week the data really start to flow again. In particular, we get a partial report...

Stock prices pushed higher last week, notching multiple records along the way as employment and inflation data took center stage in anticipation of the Fed’s upcoming meeting. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 0.31 percent, while...

The Future of the Fed Brian S. Wesbury – Chief Economist Robert Stein, CFA – Deputy Chief Economist Date: December 8, 2025 There are two very important meetings about monetary policy this week but, so far, most of the public only knows...

Stocks pushed higher over the holiday week as investors' hopes for a Fed rate adjustment drove bullish sentiment. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 3.73 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index rallied 4.91 percent. The Dow Jones...

Inflation Does Not Fix Anything, Especially Debt Brian S. Wesbury – Chief Economist Robert Stein, CFA – Deputy Chief Economist Date: December 1, 2025 In the ten years prior to the onset of COVID, the consumer prices index rose at an...

Heightened volatility was on Wall Street’s mind last week, as investors continued to focus on valuations of artificial intelligence (AI) stocks. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 1.95 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index...

No Home Price "Collapse" Brian S. Wesbury – Chief Economist Robert Stein, CFA – Deputy Chief Economist Date: November 24, 2025 Many of you may have recently seen a chart circulating on the internet suggesting a nationwide collapse in...

Stocks ended mixed after a nail-biting week for investors, who grew anxious over megacap tech valuations and interest rates as the government shutdown came to an end. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index edged up 0.08 percent, while the...

Demand-Side Trickle-Down Brian S. Wesbury – Chief Economist Robert Stein, CFA – Deputy Chief Economist Back in 1980, a central feature of President Reagan’s campaign was a thirty percent across-the-board cut in income tax rates. Once...

Stocks hit a rough patch last week as fresh labor market data, low consumer sentiment, and the ongoing government shutdown unnerved investors. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index declined 1.63 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index...

A Very Political Week Brian S. Wesbury – Chief Economist Robert Stein, CFA – Deputy Chief Economist Date: November 10, 2025 In a better world, politics would not be important to investors. The government would have little influence...

Stocks rose last week as trade developments, positive Q3 corporate results, and momentum in megacap tech drove another rally, despite some cautious comments from the Fed. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gained 0.71 percent, while the...

Capitalism vs Socialism Brian S. Wesbury – Chief Economist Robert Stein, CFA – Deputy Chief Economist Date:11/03/2025 History is absolutely clear – Capitalism is the best system ever developed (actually evolved by human experiment) to...

Stocks rose last week thanks to a full slate of upbeat third-quarter corporate results and mild inflation data, which helped soften concerns over trade tensions with China. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gained 1.92 percent, while...

A small part of the federal government took a short break from being shut to make sure the Labor Department could deliver the September Consumer Price Index. What made this particular CPI report so special? Because the Social Security...

Flying Blind Brian S. Wesbury, Chief Economist Robert Stein, Deputy Chief Economist Date 10/20/2025 As we recently argued, investors don’t need to worry about the federal government shutdown showdown causing a recession. Before the...

Stocks pushed higher last week, buoyed by strong third-quarter results posted by several money center banks. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gained 1.70 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 2.14 percent. The Dow Jones...

Brian S. Wesbury – Chief Economist Robert Stein, CFA – Deputy Chief Economist Date: 10-13-2025 Over the past two and one-half decades the federal government has buried taxpayers under a mountain of debt, now approaching $38 trillion....

Stocks rose last week, looking past the government shutdown and apparently discounting any impact it may have on the economy. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index moved up 1.08 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 1.32 percent....

History Rhymes – Don’t Forget It Brian S. Wesbury – Chief Economist Robert Stein, CFA – Deputy Chief Economist Date: 10/06/2025 No one, that we know of, is saying Artificial Intelligence (AI) isn’t an amazing new technology that will...

Stocks fell last week, buffeted by concerns about stock price valuations and a possible government shutdown. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index declined 0.31 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index lost 0.65 percent. The Dow Jones...

The Shutdown Showdown? Brian S. Wesbury, Chief Economist Robert Stein, Deputy Chief Economist Date 09/29/2025 Economic data are all over the place. GDP keeps growing in spite of signs of weakness in the labor market. Tariff policy is...

Stocks posted solid gains last week, propelled by the Fed’s decision to cut short-term interest rates. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 1.22 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index climbed 2.21 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial...

Monetary Musings Brian S. Wesbury, Chief Economist Robert Stein, Deputy Chief Economist Date 09/22/2025 The stock market surged to new highs after the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate last week and the futures market has...

Stocks posted a solid gain last week, riding a rally in megacap tech stocks while overcoming interest rate anxiety, a downward revision to jobs data, and mixed inflation reports. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 1.59 percent,...

So, Maybe That Drop In M2 Really Did Matter Brian S. Wesbury, Chief Economist Robert Stein, Deputy Chief Economist Date: 09/15/2025 If a tree fell in the woods, but the data said it didn’t, does it really mean anything? In spite of...

Stocks made gains last week, even as megacap tech gains outweighed economic concerns. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index advanced 0.33 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 1.14 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average...

Immigration, Tariffs, and AI, Oh My! Brian S. Wesbury, Chief Economist Robert Stein, Deputy Chief Economist Date: 09/08/2025 Over the past twenty years, in spite of incredible new technologies, US real GDP growth has averaged just 2.0%...

Stocks ended the week slightly lower as mixed economic data led to some profit-taking by investors ahead of the holiday weekend. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index edged down 0.10 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index slipped 0.19...

Do Valuations Matter? Brian S. Wesbury, Chief Economist Robert Stein, Deputy Chief Economist Date 09/02/2025 For the past two years, we have been warning that the stock market is overvalued. While our capitalized profits model is...

Stocks were mixed last week despite a powerful Friday rally sparked by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who opened the door to adjusting short-term interest rates. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index picked up 0.27 percent while the...

Fed Still Evading Key Issues Brian S. Wesbury, Chief Economist Robert Stein, Deputy Chief Economist Date 08/25/2025 Last Friday, Jerome Powell gave the Fed Chief’s annual speech at the Kansas City Fed’s 2025 meeting in Jackson Hole, WY...

Stocks rose last week despite mixed signals on inflation as investors kept one eye on the Fed’s September meeting. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index advanced 0.94 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index added 0.81 percent. The Dow...

Departures From Free-Markets Aren’t New Brian S. Wesbury, Chief Economist Robert Stein, Deputy Chief Economist Date 08/18/2025 Recently, due to deals President Trump is making, some are saying the United States has embarked on a...

Stocks rebounded last week as investor optimism for a September rate adjustment and strong Q2 corporate results overcame the rollout of fresh tariffs. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 2.43 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index...

As the Fed Turns Brian S. Wesbury, Chief Economist Robert Stein, Deputy Chief Economist Date 08/11/2025 At the last meeting two weeks ago, Chairman Jerome Powell got the Federal Reserve to stand pat on interest rates, but not without a...

Stocks fell last week as investors assessed progress on trade negotiations, new U.S. tariffs, and fresh data on the U.S. economy. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 2.36 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index declined 2.17...

Everything is Political…Be Careful Brian S. Wesbury, Chief Economist Robert Stein, Deputy Chief Economist Date 08/04/2025 It certainly seems hyper-politicization has come to every piece of economic data. Last week’s data are poster...

Expectation-beating Q2 results from several companies, trade updates, and investor optimism for more trade agreements pushed market averages to solid gains. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index advanced 1.46 percent, while the Nasdaq...

Brian S. Wesbury, Chief Economist Robert Stein, Deputy Chief Economist Date 07/28/2025 President Trump announced higher tariffs were on the way almost as soon as he took office. As a result, businesses focused on buying foreign goods...

Stocks were mixed last week, battling through tariff talk while responding to upbeat quarterly corporate reports and a trove of updates on the economy. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 0.59 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite...

Fed Independence is a Myth Brian S. Wesbury, Chief Economist Robert Stein, Deputy Chief Economist Date 07/21/2025 Every year the Per Jacobsson Foundation hosts and publishes a lecture on Monetary Policy. Back in 1979, Arthur Burns...

Stocks were slightly lower last week, while looking past news of fresh U.S. tariffs on nearly two dozen countries. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 0.31 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index edged lower by 0.08 percent. The...

BBB: Mostly More of the Same Brian S. Wesbury, Chief Economist Robert Stein, Deputy Chief Economist Date 07/14/2025 For the first time in a long time, Congress and the President pushed through a “normal” tax and spending bill. After...

Trade developments and continued momentum pushed all three major averages to modest gains again for a shortened holiday trading week. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 1.72 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index added 1.62...

Not So Hot Brian S. Wesbury, Chief Economist Robert Stein, Deputy Chief Economist Date 07/07/2025 In the immediate aftermath of Friday’s much anticipated Employment Report it seemed like the judgement from analysts, talking heads, and...

Stocks staged a broad-based rally last week on investors’ hopes for a lasting Middle East ceasefire, hitting fresh record highs along the way. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 3.44 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index added 4...

America’s 3.5-Second Miracle Brian S. Wesbury, Chief Economist Robert Stein, Deputy Chief Economist Date 06/30/2025 In 1852, Karl Marx said "Men make their own history, but they do not make it as they please; they do not make it under...

Stocks were mixed during the holiday-shortened trading week as uncertainty over conflict in the Middle East weighed on investors. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slipped by 0.15 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index rose by 0.21...

Mirror-Image Quarters and Iran Brian S. Wesbury, Chief Economist Robert Stein, Deputy Chief Economist Date 06/23/2025 Looking back on it, the first quarter of the year was a complete anomaly. Real GDP declined at a 0.2% annual rate,...

Stocks fell last week as an up-and-down mix of trade progress and anxiety, economic news, and geopolitical tensions netted out. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slid 0.39 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index slipped 0.63 percent....

Dueling Economies Brian S. Wesbury, Chief Economist Robert Stein, Deputy Chief Economist Date 06/16/2025 The United States consumes a large share of its GDP; China, not so much. The result is Yin and Yang. On net, China produces and...

Stocks rallied last week as investors responded to upbeat economic data and easing trade tensions. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index added 1.50 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 2.18 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial...

Thoughts on Inflation Brian S. Wesbury, Chief Economist Robert Stein, Deputy Chief Economist Date 06/09/2025 Back during the Financial Panic of 2008, clickbait media kept screaming “Hyperinflation.” We consistently pushed back against...

Stocks advanced over the short trading week, bolstered by a possible trade deal with the European Union (EU) and an upbeat corporate report from a mega-cap tech company that creates semiconductors used in the creation of artificial...

GDP Up, Inflation Down Brian S. Wesbury, Chief Economist Robert Stein, Deputy Chief Economist Date 06/02/2025 Conventional wisdom was that the tariffs imposed by the Trump Administration would cause higher inflation and slower growth –...

Stocks moved lower last week as fiscal fears and fresh tariff threats loomed over market sentiment. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 2.61 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 2.47 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial...

Debt Downgrade Drama and the Budget Brian S. Wesbury, Chief Economist Robert Stein, Deputy Chief Economist Date 05/27/2025 Moody’s finally downgraded US government debt on May 16th to Aa1, its second highest rating. With the US $36...

Does Anyone Care that Keynesianism Doesn’t Work? Brian S. Wesbury, Chief Economist Robert Stein, Deputy Chief Economist Date 05/19/2025 Milton Friedman, Art Laffer and other market-believing economists had their long day in the sun...

Stocks ended the week with a strong gain as traders continued to focus on tariff talks while appearing to overlook upbeat news on inflation. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 5.70 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index gained 7...

Time to Cut Rates Brian S. Wesbury, Chief Economist Robert Stein, Deputy Chief Economist Date: 04/14/2025 Quantitative Easing was different during COVID than during the Financial Panic of 2008. During COVID, M2 growth soared, while it...

Stocks fell broadly last week as domestic and foreign markets reacted to the White House’s tariffs. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index declined 9.08 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 10.02 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial...

Tariffs, the Economy, and Stocks Brian S. Wesbury, Chief Economist Robert Stein, Deputy Chief Economist Date: 04/07/2025 The Federal Reserve started raising short-term interest rates three years ago and the M2 measure of the money...

Weekly Market Insights | Investors React to Tariff News

Daniel Dowd

Monday, March 31, 2025

Stocks moved lower last week as investors swung from exuberance to disappointment on news over tariffs and inflation. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 1.53 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index retreated 2.59 percent. The Dow...

Inflation, the Fed, and the Markets Brian S. Wesbury, Chief Economist Robert Stein, Deputy Chief Economist Date: 03/31/2025 During the ten years prior to COVID, PCE inflation, the Fed’s preferred measure, averaged about 1.5% per year....